![]() Let's apply the same exercise to each of the five previous NCAA seasons and see if there's any predictive power. Merely agreeing with a lot of this season's projections doesn't tell us a ton, though. Dylan Windler is getting some second-round buzz. And if you go back to the list that includes juniors and seniors, Grant Williams and Brandon Clarke are both projected to go in the first round as well. PJ Washington also projects to be a mid-first-round pick. ![]() Barrett will probably go before Culver, but you can find plenty of draft analysts who have the latter higher on their big boards. But the top four could very well be how the top four at the draft actually plays out. Now, obviously some of those names are nowhere near draft boards. If you limit the sample to just freshmen and sophomores, the top 10 reads: If you sort every NCAA player with 500-plus minutes by the average of their ranks in available catch-all metrics (box plus-minus, points produced per 40 minutes, points produced, win shares per 40 minutes, win shares and player efficiency rating), the top -19 reads: Coby White: Wade Baldwin (although there's a pretty good gap in usage on that one).Bol Bol: Roughly the same as Jaxson Hayes, although we have to relax the height requirement here as well, since Bol is 7'2".De'Andre Hunter: Jordan Hamilton, Nigel Hayes and Josh Hart.Jaxson Hayes: If you relax the box plus-minus qualifications, you get Zach Collins, Tristan Thompson and Jonathan Isaac.McDaniels (if you remove the height qualifier, you add all kinds of fun names like Tony Wroten, Isaiah Whitehead, Josh Okogie, Diamond Stone, Dejounte Murray and Yogi Ferrell) Brandon Clarke: No statistical comparisons (he has the second-highest box plus-minus on record).Jarrett Culver: If you take away the class qualification, you get Kris Dunn.Ja Morant: Dion Waiters (major difference here is that Morant's assist percentage is a whopping 30 points higher).Zion Williamson: No statistical comparisons.If we do the same exercise for the top 10 NCAA players on Tankathon's Big Board, this is what we get: Freshman Barnes was the closest to Barrett's usage, and even he was almost six points behind there. Barrett as the example here.Īs a freshman for Duke, Barrett was listed at 6'7", posted a 5.3 offensive box plus-minus, posted a 2.4 defensive box plus-minus and had a 32.2 usage percentage. The only NBA players who are within two inches of Barrett's height and were within 0.5 points of his offensive and defensive box plus-minuses as freshmen in college: Harrison Barnes, Justin Jackson, Vincent Edwards and Josh Hart. He barely missed the cut with a 9.9 box plus-minus, but we'll have more on him later.Īnother way to look at a prospect's potential is to find a statistical profile that is close to his. We may as well add Ja Morant to this list as well. NCAA basketball almost presents a different sport than the NBA, so college numbers aren't necessarily indicative of how a player's pro career will turn out. Despite his placement in the project below, his name will likely be called in the top 10 of this year's draft. He has the physical tools to succeed, but his numbers as a freshman were underwhelming. The same may apply to a prospect like Duke's Cam Reddish. If a rookie passes the eye test but posts a below-average box plus-minus, it's probably fine to trust the eye test. But the application of so-called "analytics" to young players, especially NBA Draft prospects, remains tentative. (Photo by Tony Quinn/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) Gettyīasketball analysis has drastically changed in the age of information. Men's championship - elite eight game between Duke and Michigan State, on March 31, 2019, at Capital One Arena, in Washington D.C. WASHINGTON, DC - MARCH 31: Duke Blue Devils forward Zion Williamson (1) warming up before a Div 1.
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